by Rick Thompson/December 15, 2020
The Michigan cannabis market could top $3 billion within three years, said Director Brisbo of Michigan’s Marijuana Regulatory Agency on a recent episode of Four20Post. During his interview with hosts Mike Brennan, Rick Thompson and Jamie Cooper, the Director revealed the number of potential consumers of cannabis in Michigan is projected to be nearly 4 million.
“We have estimates in our economic analysis that are more based on population and surveys from anticipated consumers and models from more mature states like Colorado,” said the Director. “The number of potential and likely adult use consumers in Michigan is at close to the four million mark.” There are only 6.9 million adults over 21 in the state, per census data.
When asked by Four20Host Mike Brennan about the sales outlook for 2021 Director Brisbo said, “I don’t look at it differentiating between medical and adult use because we’re really starting to think of it more as a total market.” Both medical and adult-use cannabis sales are regulated by the MRA. In the adult-use market alone, month-over-month sales are approx. $60 million now, he included.
“We are not going to make a billion (dollars) this year,” Brisbo conceded, although projections at various times had indicated the Michigan cannabis industry might have hit that mark. “We’ll get well over a billion next year. I don’t think we’ll have any challenge there.”
When he later reflected on the future market, Director Brisbo added, “I think we’ll get to about $1.2, $1.3 billion next year, maybe one and a half. Ultimately based on the economic analysis we’ll get to three (billion), but it will probably be two or three years before we get there.”
Key to hitting that sales goal is an expansion in the number of communities accepting cannabis businesses. Also key to the success of the industry: sales to out-of-state residents, which account for up to 10% of all sales in Michigan, as cited by Thompson.
When asked about the 10% market share composed of non-residents, Director Brisbo answered, “It wouldn’t surprise me. I know there is a lot of interest in border communities from businesses to locate there, where otherwise there’s not a significant Michigan-based population.”
Michigan shares borders with three “very restrictive states,” Brisbo explained. That includes the lightly-populated Upper Peninsula-Wisconsin border zone, where the Badger State has an inferior cannabis program.
Michigan’s southern border connects to two states, each with an unsatisfied population. “Look at those two close border states: Indiana, where there’s almost no legal access to cannabis, and Ohio, which has a medical program but one which is a little more restrictive than Michigan’s,” Brisbo summed. “There’s consumer interest in those communities.”
Watch the episode featuring Director Brisbo in the player below or at the Four20Post YouTube channel here.